In the first Super Four match, Sri Lanka lost to Bangladesh. In the second match, Pakistan lost to India. After a day’s break, the Asia Cup resumes today. Pakistan and Sri Lanka—both of whom started the Super Four with a defeat—face each other in this match.
So, if either Pakistan or Sri Lanka lose today, will it be the end of the road for them? Or, despite two consecutive losses, can they still qualify for the final? Naturally, these questions are being asked.
The answer to the first question is no, and to the second one, yes. Let’s break down the scenarios.
If Pakistan lose today…
- After losing to India and then Sri Lanka, Pakistan would have to cheer for their archrival India in tomorrow’s Bangladesh–India match to keep their final hopes alive. Because if Bangladesh win, Pakistan’s final dream will be buried.
- If Pakistan lose today, they will remain on 0 points after two matches, while Sri Lanka will move to 2 points. If Bangladesh beat India tomorrow, Bangladesh will rise to 4 points, leaving India at 2. In the last Super Four match, India will face Sri Lanka. Even if that match is abandoned, both teams will finish with 3 points each. Whoever wins will reach 4 points. Even if Pakistan beat Bangladesh in their last match, they will not be able to collect more than 2 points.
- However, if India beat Bangladesh, Pakistan can still reach the final even after losing today. In that case, Pakistan must defeat Bangladesh in their last match, and India must beat Sri Lanka. Then, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka will all finish with 2 points each. The second finalist will be decided on the basis of net run rate (NRR).
If Sri Lanka lose today…
- The situation will be the opposite for Sri Lanka. If India win tomorrow against Bangladesh, Sri Lanka will be knocked out. If Bangladesh win, Sri Lanka’s hopes will remain alive.
- If India beat Bangladesh, then even if Sri Lanka beat India in the last match, they won’t have more than 2 points. In that case, the final will be played between India and either Bangladesh or Pakistan.
- However, if Bangladesh defeat both India and Pakistan, then Sri Lanka can still reach the final despite losing today. In that case, if they beat India in their last match and stay ahead of India and Pakistan on net run rate, Sri Lanka could qualify for the final.
