On Thursday, Bangladesh lost to South Africa, increasing pressure on India. The path to the World Test Championship final has become more challenging. In the coming days, a tough task awaits Rohit Sharma and his team. Not only that, but Australia is also under pressure. The advantage now lies with South Africa.
Before the Mirpur Test, South Africa’s points percentage was 38.89. After the win, it has risen to 47.62, moving them up to fourth place, surpassing New Zealand (44.44) and England (43.06). Now they, too, are contenders for a spot in the final. Bangladesh, despite being in seventh place, saw their points percentage drop from 34.38 to 30.56.
Although India currently sits at the top with a points percentage of 68.06, there is no guarantee of making it to the final. To secure a spot in the final, India needs to win four and draw one of the remaining seven Tests (assuming the second Test against New Zealand).
This would set their points percentage at 65.79, practically ensuring a spot in the final. However, if India cannot secure these four wins, the pressure will increase. If India wins four Tests without any draws, their points percentage will be 64.04, which could open the door for Australia, South Africa, and even Sri Lanka to reach the final. If South Africa wins all their remaining matches, their points percentage will reach 69.44.
Australia is currently in second place with a points percentage of 62.50. If they win four Tests and draw one, they will end with a points percentage of 62.28, keeping them in the race for the final. However, unfavorable results could see them drop lower. With a points percentage of 55.56, Sri Lanka, though in a weaker position, still has a chance.
According to cricket statistician Krishna Kumar, Australia has an 84% chance of reaching the final, India has a 57% chance, South Africa has a 46% chance, and Sri Lanka has a 10% chance.
